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No, Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges are not inherently bullish for crypto


  • The recent decline in Bitcoin withdrawals from centralized exchanges is not necessarily a bullish trend for the market
  • Data fails to show a strong correlation between on-chain metrics and Bitcoin price action
  • There could be alternative explanations for the decrease in withdrawals, such as increased trust in custody solutions
  • Regulatory actions and decreasing interest from buyers could also contribute to the trend
  • The movement of coins to long-term holders does not guarantee a positive impact on price dynamics

Crypto analysts on X (the social media platform formerly known as Twitter) and in YouTube interviews have been discussing the trend of Bitcoin leaving centralized exchanges. On Aug. 29, the quantity of Bitcoin (BTC) held within exchanges reached its lowest point since January 2018. While some experts interpret this as a positive indicator, there is no conclusive evidence to support the idea that fewer coins on exchanges is inherently bullish for the BTC price.

Data fails to show correlation between on-chain metrics and Bitcoin price action

Blockchain transaction data shows a consistent reduction in Bitcoin deposits on exchanges since mid-May. However, Bitcoin’s price trajectory does not provide substantial indications of a bullish upswing, except for a brief surge in mid-June that coincided with BlackRock’s application for a spot exchange-traded fund. It is important to note that the increase in deposits on exchanges during the period from March 12 to March 19 contradicted the predictions of on-chain analysis.

Bitcoin holders shifted to a reliable custody solution

The decrease in Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges may not necessarily indicate a decrease in short-term selling pressure. One possible explanation is the increasing trust in custody solutions. Bitcoin owners might have acquired these coins in the past and have now decided to move them to more secure storage. The lack of trust in custody solutions, demonstrated by incidents such as Prime Trust’s bankruptcy protection and the theft of crypto assets from Atomic Wallet users, could have contributed to the cautious approach of investors.

Investors have lost confidence in centralized exchanges

Regulatory actions against major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase have also influenced users’ decisions to keep their coins away from exchanges, regardless of their selling intentions. Concerns over potential indictments and the fear of a run on the exchange have led to a decrease in deposits on exchanges. These actions by regulatory authorities have caused investors to lose confidence in centralized exchanges.

Decreasing interest from buyers could balance out the trend

Even if the majority of the Bitcoin leaving exchanges is headed to cold wallets, implying that holders have a reduced inclination for short-term selling, the overall demand for Bitcoin has also decreased. Google Trends data shows that searches for “buy Bitcoin” have struggled to surpass 50% of their previous peak. Similarly, Bitcoin’s spot trading volume has significantly decreased in August. The decrease in interest from buyers mirrors the lack of bullish momentum in Bitcoin’s price.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Coinpostman.

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