– Bitcoin has experienced a 5% increase after testing the $25,000 support level on Sept. 11.
– However, this breakout rally doesn’t necessarily indicate a victory for bulls.
– Bitcoin has witnessed a 15% decline since July, while the S&P 500 index and gold have maintained relatively stable positions.
– Despite significant catalysts such as MicroStrategy’s plan to acquire an additional $750 million worth of BTC and the multiple requests for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from trillion-dollar asset management firms, Bitcoin has struggled to gain momentum.
– According to Bitcoin derivatives, bulls are confident that $25,000 marked a bottom and opened room for further price gains.
– Some argue that Bitcoin’s primary drivers for 2024, such as the prospects of a spot ETF and the reduction in new supply following the April 2024 halving, are still in play.
– The bears have their advantages, including the ongoing legal cases against leading exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, and the troubled financial situation of Digital Currency Group after one of its subsidiaries declared bankruptcy in January 2023.
– Bitcoin monthly futures typically trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating sellers asking for more money to delay settlement.
– The demand for leveraged BTC long and short positions through futures contracts did not have a significant impact on the drop below the $25,000 mark on Sept. 11.
– The BTC futures premium continues to hover below the 5% neutral threshold, indicating a lack of demand for leveraged long positions.
– The 25% delta skew metric in the options markets suggests balanced pricing between call and put options, implying equal odds for both bullish and bearish price movements.
– Given the uncertainty on the macroeconomic front, it’s likely that crypto traders will be cautious and prefer a “return to the mean” trading range of $25,500 to $26,200.
– The fact that derivatives markets held up during the dip below $25,000 is a promising sign from a bullish perspective.
– Both bulls and bears have significant triggers that could influence the price of Bitcoin, but predicting the timing of these events is challenging.
– Derivatives metrics have remained resilient as both sides exercise caution to avoid excessive exposure.
Note: This article is for general information purposes only and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Coinpostman.
